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Peak Oil Opportunity

Much press has recently been devoted to a hypothesized societal collapse resulting from the arrival of the dreaded event of “Peak Oil”. Peak Oil signals the moment when petroleum consumers will have used up 50 percent of the economically recoverable oil in the world. The law of supply and demand then dictates that oil prices will rise exponentially, wreaking havoc on all oil-dependent societies. The petroleum pundits warn us that when we reach the point of Peak Oil, industrial societies will descend into a period of “potentially great instability, turbulence and hardship” which will result in a state of “permanent economic depression.” Yet they seem unaware of the numerous options we have to mitigate or sidestep the doom-and-gloom scenario that most media do their best to emphasize. In fact, renewable energy, biofuels, energy efficiency and smart-growth policies can do much to eliminate our need for fossil fuels over the next three decades.

Our present generation of cars and trucks need liquid fuels like gasoline or diesel fuel, or gasoline and diesel substitutes. Yes, we are nearly totally dependent on these fuels as the mainstay of our economy. But that’s now. We could, if we’re willing to muster the political will, completely eliminate our need for imported oil in less than a decade.

Here’s how:
• Implement California-style low-emission vehicle standards for all new cars sold and operated all 50 states.
• Mandate the development of a new generation of highly fuel-efficient, multi-fuel or flex-fuel vehicles, including hybrids and heavy trucks.
• Provide financial incentives for purchase of fuel-efficient, multi-fuel/flex-fuel vehicles.
• Provide low-cost leasing options for low-income drivers who trade in old, inefficient vehicles.
• Provide tax incentives or buydowns for conversions of existing vehicles to alternative fuels or flex-fuel capability.
• Retrofit existing vehicles with a new generation of high-efficiency spark plugs and mileage booster fuel additives.
• Promote fuel switching to carbon-neutral biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel.
• Develop a new generation of personal electric vehicles (PEVs) for commuting.

Implementing the majority of these initiatives would enable us to lop off 30 - 40 percent of our oil use rather quickly. A federal Renewable Fuels Standard could mandate a 20 percent blend of ethanol in our gasoline and require 50 - 80 percent biodiesel in our diesel fuel. (Brazil has used a 25 percent ethanol blend for years.) Merely by switching to biofuels over the next five to eight years could take out 20 - 30 percent of our oil demand. By 2008 we could require that all new gasoline vehicles be designed as dual-fuel or flex-fuel vehicles that can run on 85 percent ethanol (E85) or 100 percent gasoline or any combination of the two. It costs the manufacturer less than $200 to add flex-fuel capability to a new vehicle. In fact, flex-fuel vehicles are all the rage in Europe (where gasoline is now $7 per gallon) and account for over 50 percent of new car sales in Brazil.

Flex-fuel vehicles are very clean. For example, the net carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the European Ford Focus is one-fifth that of the standard Ford Focus model, and one-third of the Toyota Prius. The fact is, biofuels are better for the environment and better for our national security. Any vehicle can use certain biofuel blends without modification. All vehicle manufacturers approve of the 10 percent ethanol/90 percent gasoline blend defined as “E10.” All flex-fuel vehicles can use the 85 percent ethanol/15 percent gasoline blend defined as “E85”. Any diesel can use the “B20” (20 percent biodiesel/80 percent petroleum diesel) blend.

Every community in the U.S. could have access to gasoline and diesel substitutes within five years if we as a nation are willing to become serious about reducing our dependency on oil. Once we fully embrace more energy efficient vehicles and renewable biofuels, the Middle East becomes ancient history again. We won’t need their oil because we will be building a new “wealth creation” economy based on the production of more biofuels and an energy-efficient transportation system.

The fossil era is what Roy McAllister of the American Hydrogen Association terms a “wealth depletion” economy. Around $200 billion of American money is siphoned off each year to purchase foreign oil. This represents a massive loss of American capital and American jobs. If instead we switch to a renewable, made-in-America fuels paradigm, we create a wealth-creation economy for ourselves that would have huge social, political and economic benefits.

The myth still persists that “ethanol and biodiesel require more energy to make than they give back.” That’s flat-out wrong. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), state-of-the-art corn ethanol facilities produce 34 - 67 percent more energy than they use. Biodiesel production produces 200 - 350 percent more net energy that it uses. But here’s what’s not mentioned: fossil fuels are actually net energy losers. The USDA calculates that production of gasoline results in a net energy loss of 25 percent, and petro-diesel’s net loss is 17 percent. Ethanol made from waste cellulosic materials and sustainably grown energy crops could displace possibly 30 percent of our present gasoline usage. Canola grown for biodiesel on an area about one-quarter the size of New Mexico could displace 100 percent of our entire national diesel fuel demand.

Both the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) and the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) are bullish on biofuels. In his new book, Winning the Oil Endgame, RMI author Amory Lovins suggests we can completely kick the oil habit by 2020 by switching to more efficient vehicles and by using biofuels and hydrogen. The NRDC report Growing Energy: How Biofuels Can End America’s Oil Dependence says this about biofuels: “Biofuels can be cost-competitive with gasoline and diesel and allow us to invest our energy dollars at home. They can also slash global warming emissions, improve air quality, reduce soil erosion and expand wildlife habitat.”

A recent article in Newsweek noted that if you add a few more batteries to a Prius and made it a flex-fuel vehicle that could use 85 percent ethanol (E85), you’d get the equivalent of 300 to 500 miles per gallon of gasoline used. That’s huge. The idea here is that most driving trips are less than 20 miles. A few more batteries in the Prius would allow you to get to work and back without using any liquid fuels. If you charged the Prius using wind- or solar-generated power, you’d eliminate fossil fuels for charging. Ex-Worldwatcher Lester Brown says that if all cars got the mileage of the Prius, we’d reduce our oil consumption by 50 percent.

Gasification and similar technologies currently in prototype stages can cost-effectively and cleanly make synthetic gas (syngas) or “green natural gas” and ethanol from just about any cellulosic or hydrocarbon source. This means we can heat our homes or run our vehicles on animal manures, agricultural waste, municipal solid waste (garbage), paper, plastic, old tires and wood chips.

So indeed, the options for a petroleum-free society are many. We need not fall victim to despair regarding the dire petroleum portents that certain parties will continue to dispense as part of an intentional fear-mongering strategy. Instead, we need to be harnessing our full human ingenuity and mobilizing our political will to step boldly into a renewable energy-based post petroleum future.

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Charles Bensinger is a long-time renewable energy and non-petroleum fuels activist. He is currently Biofuels Program Director for Renewable Energy Partners of New Mexico, a non-profit organization currently building distribution infrastructure in Santa Fe and Northern New Mexico. See www.RenewableEnergyPartners.org

BUYING BIOFUEL Biofuel blends can be purchased in various places throughout the United States. To find a facility in your community go to the U.S. Department of Energy’s Alternative Fuels Data Center: http://afdcmap.nrel.gov/locator/LocatePane.asp The following Biofuel stations are located in New Mexico: SANTA FE: three blends of biofuels (E10, E85 and B20) are available at the Amigo Mart Baca Street Biofuels Station, 1229 Cerrillos Road. Albuquerque: 10 percent ethanol (E10) is blended into all gasoline between November and April. E85 and B20 are available at the Ever-Ready Oil Company, 1200 1st Street NW.